Wednesday, April 8, 2020

Mathhammer - Dark Lances vs. Splinter Cannons

Roboute Guilliman takes on the Drukhari Army
I've always been interested in the math behind Warhammer and how to use probability to influence your decisions during game play and list construction. I think the general consensus is that more volume outweighs higher quality weaponry. I wanted to see how this worked so I built a spreadsheet that would calculate 10,000 shots and compare something like a Dark Lance vs. a Splinter Cannon.

I used Roboute Guilliman as the defending model.


Roboute Guilliman
ToughnessSaveInvulnerable
62+3+

I ran 10,000 shots through him with a Dark Lance - Heavy 1 / Strength 8 / AP -4 / D6 Damage.

Dark Lance x3 (63 Points)
Hit %Wound %Damage RollsDamage
65% - 72%41% - 47%30% - 37%1.22 - 1.88

Damage Rolls is the percentage of wounds that were not saved.

I also ran 10,000 Splinter Cannon (6 shots per Weapon because of Rapid Fire) - Rapid Fire 3 / Strength: Always wounds on 4's  / AP 0 / 1.


Splinter Cannon x4 (64 Points)
Hit %Wound %Damage RollsDamage
65% - 72%30% - 36.5%15% - 18.5%.68 - 1.72

It seems like the Dark Lance edges it out in this situation with a higher average damage.

Next, I wanted to try this vs. a Primaris Marine. Excess wounds don't matter as much since they don't spill over so I'm only calculating the average number of Primaris killed.

Primaris Marines
ToughnessSaveWounds
43+2

Again, I ran 10,000 Dark Lance shots through the unit.

Dark Lance x3 (63 Points)
Hit %Wound %Damage RollsPrimaris Kills
65% - 72%53% - 60.5%100%1.42 - 1.62

It looks like 3 Dark Lances kill 1 Primaris and do 1 damage to another on average.

Splinter Cannon x4 (64 Points)
WS 3Strength 8Damage RollsPrimaris Kills
65% - 72%30% - 36.5%30.5% - 37.5%1.02 - 1.60

This was pretty close as well but the Dark Lance, point for point, seems like a better choice. The Poison Weapon attribute that the Splinter Cannon has that allows wounds on 4+ works much better against models like the Plague Marines with Toughness 5.

I think I will try running 10,000 shots against them next but it requires another addition the formula because of their 5+ Disgustingly Resilient. I'll post that result tomorrow.





Monday, April 6, 2020

Craftworlds - Painting

Craftworlds Army 2000 Points
I never really liked the look of the Eldar and I especially hate the look of the old metal models but these have been sitting in my office for years and figured if I give them some love they'll grow on me. They have old paint on them from the person I bought the lot from and whenever my 5 year old begs me to allow him to paint some models, the Eldar are the ones I sacrifice to him so he stops bugging me.

Every night I plan to work towards speed painting the army to get them at least table top quality. Last night I got to rework the old Wraithguards.

Wraithguard
I hope to get the Swooping Hawks or the Howling Banshees painted next and get these guys on the table.

Thursday, April 2, 2020

Drukhari vs Death Guard - 2000 Point ITC Battle Report


Today we have a Battle Report using ITC rules. The mission is "What's Yours is Mine" and the deployment is Vanguard Strike.

The Army Lists:
Let's get on to the Battle Report!

Deployment

The Drukhari win the roll and opt to go first. The plan is to sweep the left side of the map using the Talos as meat shields and hopefully control the objectives in the later rounds. The Death Guard focus on slowly pushing towards the center to score their King of the Hill secondary.

Turn 1 - Top - Drukhari
Turn 1 - Top - Drukhari: The Drukhari push through the top left of the map and focus in on the weaker flank of the Death Guard Army. The Reaver Jet Bikes see an unfavorable match up against the Foetid Bloat Drones and advance towards the center.

The Dark Lances and Splinter Cannons unleash and are able to destroy a precious Plagueburst Crawler scoring them a First Blood secondary and a Marked for Death secondary. They are also able to kill 20x Poxwalkers and one Plague Marine.

Score: Drukhari: 4 / Death Guard: 0


Turn 1 - Bottom - Death Guard
Turn 1 - Bottom - Death Guard: The Death Guard respond by advancing forward towards the center hoping to score their King of the Hill secondary. Without a strong screen of Poxwalkers in the middle of the map, the Foetid Bloat Drones move in to provide a charge barrier with their auto hitting Plaguespitters.

The Death Guard drop mortars and disease filled bile on their enemy and are able to destroy 4 Incubi, an entire unit of Wyches, 10 Scourges, and 1 Raider transporting 10 Kabalite Warriors who miraculously jump off the transport unscathed.

In total, they are able to take out 4 units scoring them the mission bonus but are unable to claim any other secondaries. This was a painful round for the Drukhari but they are still up in points.

Score: Drukhari: 4 / Death Guard: 3


Turn 2 - Top - Drukhari

Turn 2 - Top - Drukhari: The Drukhari unleash their squad of Reaver Jet Bikes and crash down on a Foetid Bloat Drone. With a few good placed Blaster D6 Damage shots and a final charging push, the Foetid Bloat Drone goes down. The tight group of Talos burst through the Poxwalker screen and tear open into a Malignant Plaguecaster.

The casualties are high for the Death Guard. They lose 18 Poxwalkers, 1 Foteid Bloat Drone, 1 Maligant Plaguecaster.

The Drukhari score on 3 Mission points, Recon, and Marked for death.

Score: Drukhari: 9 / Death Guard: 3


Turn 2 - Bottom - Death Guard

Turn 2 - Bottom - Death Guard: The Death Guard charge wildly into the Reaver Jetbikes and smash through 9 of them. The Cultists sacrifice themselves and try and hold off the massive Talos that are coming to eviscerate the unprotected Plagueburst Crawlers. The very slow Blightlord Terminators drop in and blast away at the Kabalite Warriors but unfortunately fail their charge.

The Death Guard score 3 Mission points and a King of the Hill secondary.

Score: Drukhari: 9 / Death Guard: 7


Turn 3 - Top - Drukhari

Turn 3 - Top - Drukhari:
 This was the most devastating turn for the Drukhari. The three Talos focus their fire their Heat Lances on a Plagueburst Crawler and melt it to a mound of glowing ooze. They are also able to take out 6 Plague Mariens, another Malignant Plaguecaster, and 20 Cultists who fail morale checks and run off screaming into the alien forest.

The Drukhari score on 4 Mission points, Marked for Death x2, and Recon x2.

Score: Drukhari: 17 / Death Guard: 7


Turn 3 - Bottom - Death Guard

Turn 3 - Bottom - Death Guard:
 Typus laughs at the remaining 2 Reaver Jet Bikes and carelessly charges into their Blaster shots. With a miraculous overwatch of double 6's, the Blasters turn Typhus into a pile of ashes. This was a huge turning point for the Drukhari as Typhus was the focus of the Born for Greatness secondary and his death prevented the scoring of this objective.

Only 13 Kabalite Warriors fall to the Death Guard this turn. They are only able to score 2 points for the main mission.

Score: Drukhari: 17 / Death Guard: 9


Turn 4 - Top - Drukhari

Turn 4 - Top - Drukhari: It seems pretty hopeless for the Death Guard but the Drukhari are relentless and ruthless and press on. They are able to kill the Chaos Lord which was the Death Guard Warlord along with the Noxious Blightbringer. They also control their two placed objective which gives them their mission bonus.

They are able to score 4 Mission Points along with Kingslayer and Recon.

Score: Drukhari: 22 / Death Guard: 9


Turn 4 - Bottom - Death Guard

Turn 4 - Bottom - Death Guard: There isn't much left of the Death Guard. The Blightlord Terminators finish up the Kabalite Warriors at the top while the Foetid Bloat Drone wipes out the other unit.

They score 2 mission points.

Score: Drukhari: 22 / Death Guard: 11


Turn 5 - Top - Drukhari

Turn 5 - Top - Drukhari: The Talos use their massive claws to rip open the last Plagueburst Crawler and the Raiders fire on the Bloat Drone hoping to whittle it down but are only able to do a few points of damage.

The Drukhari score 4 Mission points and Marked for Death.

Score: Drukhari: 27 / Death Guard: 11


Turn 5 - Bottom - Death Guard

Turn 5 - Bottom - Death Guard: The Blightlord Terminators launch everything they have against the Incubi but fail to kill them. The Foetid Bloat Drone stands on the stone bridge and launch down but fail to cause any casualties.

The Death Guard score 1 point for holding an objective but nothing else.

Score: Drukhari: 27 / Death Guard: 12


Turn 6 - Top - Drukhari

Turn 6 - Top - Drukhari: With an overwhelming advantage of firepower, the Drukhari easily destroy the Foetid Bloat Drone completing their Marked for Death secondary leaving only 3 Blightlord Terminators alive.

The Drukhari score 5 Mission points along with Marked for Death, Linebreaker, and Last Strike.

Turn 6 - Bottom - Death Guard: The Blightlord Terminators make their final push and kill 1 Incubi putting an end to this nightmarish match for the Death Guard.

The initial casualties that the Death Guard suffered in the 1st and 2nd turn were too much to come back from. The final nail in the coffin was the failed charge from Typhus which sealed his fate. The Drukhari's ability to quickly change strategies between turns made it difficult for the lumbering Death Guard to react and caused their weaker flank to crumble to the shifting tides of the Drukhari army.  

Death Guard - 200 Point List - Corona Crew


Death Guard 2000 Point List

Battalion 1

  • HQ - Typhus
    • Miasma of Pestilence 
    • Blades of Putrefaction
  • HQ - Malignant Plaguecaster 1
    • Pandemic Staff (Relic +1 to Smite)
    • Miasma of Pestilence 
    • Curse of the Leper
  • Troops - Plague Marines x12
    • 1x Power Fist
    • 3x Plasma Guns
  • Troops - Poxwalkers x20
  • Troops - Poxwalkers x10
  • Elites - Blightlord Terminators x5
    • 4x Bubonic Axe
    • 1x Flail of Corruption
    • 1x Blight Launcher
  • Elites - Noxious Blightbringer
  • Fast Attack - Foetid Bloat-drone x

Battalion 2

  • HQ - Malignant Plaguecaster 2
    • Plague Wind
    • Blades of Putrefaction
  • HQ - Malignant Plaguecaster 3
    • Miasma of Pestilence 
    • Gift of Contagion
  • Troops - Cultist x10
    • x9 Brutal Assault Weapons
    • x1 Heavy Flamer
  • Troops - Cultist x10
    • x8 Autoguns
    • x1 Shotgun
    • x1 Heavy Bolter

Spearhead Detachment

  • HQ - Chaos Lord (Warlord)
    • Arch-Contaminator (Re-roll all failed Plague Weapon wound rolls within 7")
    • Fulgaris Helm (+3" to all auras)
    • 1x Plasma Pistol
    • 1x Power Sword
  • Heavy Support - Plagueburst Crawler x3
    • 2x Entropy Cannons 
    • 1x Heavy Slugger

Wednesday, April 1, 2020

Drukhari 2000 Point List - Trifecta

I finally completed painting my 2000 Point Drukhari list over the Covid break which actually made me feel hobby productive. I might not have fixed anything around the house or mowed the lawn but I got my purple baddies painted up.

Drukhari 2000 Point - Trifecta
This list is probably not the most competitive list. I built it based on a random assortment of metal models I had laying around. Here is the list:

2000 Point Drukhari List:

Battalion

Kabal of the Obsidian Rose: (+6" to Rapid Fire, Assault, and Heavy weapons)

  • HQ: Archon
    • Helm of Spite (Allows 1 Deny the witch a turn which causes a Perils of the Warp for the Psyker.)
    • Hatred Eternal
    • Huskblade
  • HQ: Archon
    • Huskblade
  • Troops: Kabalite Warriors 1
    • Dark Lance
    • Blaster
  • Troops: Kabalite Warriors 2
    • Dark Lance
    • Blaster
  • Troops: Kabalite Warriors 3
    • Dark lance
    • Blaster
  • Troops: Kabalite Warriors 4
    • Splinter Cannon
    • Blaster
  • Elites: Incubi
  • Heavy Support: Ravager
    • 3x Dark Lance
  • Dedicated Transport: Raider 1
    • Dark Lance
    • Shock Praw
    • Splinter Rack
  • Dedicated Transport: Raider 2
    • Dark Lance
  • Dedicated Transport: Raider 3
    • Dark Lance

Spearhead Detachment

Prophets of Flesh (+1 Invulnerable Save) 
  • HQ: Haemonculus
  • Heavy Support: Talos
    • 2x Heat Lance
    • Ichor Injector
    • Macro-Scalpel
  • Heavy Suport: Talos
    • 2x Heat Lance
    • Ichor Injector
    • Macro-Scalpel
  • Heavy Suport: Talos
    • 2x Heat Lance
    • Ichor Injector
    • Macro-Scalpel

Outrider Detachment

Cult of the Cursed Blade - (+1 Strength) 
  • HQ: Succubus 
    • Combat Drugs: Grave Lotus (+1 Strength)
    • Razorflails
  • Troops: Wyches - x9 + 1 Hekatrix
    • Combat Drugs: Adrenalight (+1 Attacks)
  • Fast Attack: Reavers - x10 + 1 Arena Champion
    • Combat Drugs: Painbringer (+1 Toughness)
    • 2x Heat Lance
    • Ichor Injector
    • Macro-Scalpel
    • 3x Grav-Talons (When you charge, roll 4+ for Mortal Wounds)
  • Troops: Scourges
    • 4x Splinter Cannon
    • Shardcarbine
  • Troops: Scourges
    • 4x Dark Lance
    • Shardcarbine

I'm really liking the large group of 11 Reaver bikes. They have some Stratagems synergies and Mortal Wound capabilities. I played a couple practice games with myself and they were great at grabbing far objectives and smashing light infantry.

I've built the list with 13x Dark Lances and 13x Blaster/Heat Lance shots which all have D6 damage. With the majority of them having the 6" bonus to range they should be strong enough firepower to take out a Heavy Support or two and score some good points.

I think I've also got about 53 shots of Rapid Fire weapons which can handle infantry pretty well. 

I hope to get to try this list out after we're off from lockdown and get some better ideas about how to make it ITC ready!